...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%).
Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain.
..Thornton.. 02/15/2025
General Precautions for Fire Weather
Stay Informed: Monitor weather forecasts and fire warnings from official sources like [Local Fire Department, National Weather Service, etc. Have a battery-powered radio in case of power outages.
Be Aware of Your Surroundings: Pay close attention to your surroundings and be aware of any signs of fire, such as smoke or unusual fire behavior.
Be Ready to Evacuate
Prepare a "Go Bag": Have a readily accessible bag with essential items in case of evacuation, including:
Water
Non-perishable food
First-aid kit
Medications
Flashlight with extra batteries
Important documents (copies)
Clothing for all weather conditions
Cell phone and charger
Pet supplies (if applicable)
Be Prepared
Create a Wildfire Action Plan: Discuss a wildfire action plan with your family, including evacuation routes and meeting points. Practice your plan regularly.
Prepare your Home
Maintain Your Property:
Clear brush and debris around your home.
Keep lawns and vegetation trimmed.
Ensure your address is clearly visible from the street.
Inspect and maintain outdoor equipment (mowers, chainsaws, etc.) to prevent sparks.
Avoid Activities that Could Spark a Fire:
Refrain from open burning, including campfires and backyard fires.
Be extremely careful with smoking materials.
Avoid using fireworks.
Be cautious when operating machinery that could produce sparks, especially in dry grass or brush.
Ensure vehicles are in good working order, with no dragging parts that could create sparks.
If a Wildfire Threatens Your Area:
Evacuate Immediately: If you are advised to evacuate, do so immediately. Do not wait until the last minute.
Follow Evacuation Routes: Follow designated evacuation routes and do not take shortcuts.
Stay Informed: Listen to official sources for updates and instructions.
If Trapped: If you cannot evacuate, seek shelter in a sturdy building away from vegetation. Close all doors and windows and stay inside until it is safe to leave.
Remember: Wildfires can spread quickly and unexpectedly. Being prepared and taking precautions can significantly reduce your risk. Your safety is your responsibility.
