...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula.
...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains.
Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK.
...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile.
..Moore.. 03/17/2025
General Precautions for Fire Weather
Stay Informed: Monitor weather forecasts and fire warnings from official sources like [Local Fire Department, National Weather Service, etc. Have a battery-powered radio in case of power outages.
Be Aware of Your Surroundings: Pay close attention to your surroundings and be aware of any signs of fire, such as smoke or unusual fire behavior.
Be Ready to Evacuate
Prepare a "Go Bag": Have a readily accessible bag with essential items in case of evacuation, including:
Water
Non-perishable food
First-aid kit
Medications
Flashlight with extra batteries
Important documents (copies)
Clothing for all weather conditions
Cell phone and charger
Pet supplies (if applicable)
Be Prepared
Create a Wildfire Action Plan: Discuss a wildfire action plan with your family, including evacuation routes and meeting points. Practice your plan regularly.
Prepare your Home
Maintain Your Property:
Clear brush and debris around your home.
Keep lawns and vegetation trimmed.
Ensure your address is clearly visible from the street.
Inspect and maintain outdoor equipment (mowers, chainsaws, etc.) to prevent sparks.
Avoid Activities that Could Spark a Fire:
Refrain from open burning, including campfires and backyard fires.
Be extremely careful with smoking materials.
Avoid using fireworks.
Be cautious when operating machinery that could produce sparks, especially in dry grass or brush.
Ensure vehicles are in good working order, with no dragging parts that could create sparks.
If a Wildfire Threatens Your Area:
Evacuate Immediately: If you are advised to evacuate, do so immediately. Do not wait until the last minute.
Follow Evacuation Routes: Follow designated evacuation routes and do not take shortcuts.
Stay Informed: Listen to official sources for updates and instructions.
If Trapped: If you cannot evacuate, seek shelter in a sturdy building away from vegetation. Close all doors and windows and stay inside until it is safe to leave.
Remember: Wildfires can spread quickly and unexpectedly. Being prepared and taking precautions can significantly reduce your risk. Your safety is your responsibility.
